Karl-Anthony Towns trade rumors are inevitable after Timberwolves' loss to Mavericks, but are they realistic?

Karl-Anthony Towns was a crucial player in what might be the Minnesota Timberwolves' greatest victory to date. Let's be clear about that. Towns was the primary defender on Nikola Jokic as the Timberwolves shocked the defending champion Denver Nuggets to advance to the 2024 Western Conference finals. The team’s strategy to beat the Nuggets hinged as much on Towns as it did on Rudy Gobert and Anthony Edwards. Known as the greatest shooting big man in NBA history, Towns was vital to maintaining the Timberwolves' offensive prowess against some of the league's largest lineups. Without him, Minnesota's season would have ended weeks earlier.

However, Towns struggled significantly in the Western Conference Finals against the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks presented numerous matchup challenges, but Towns was expected to excel against the smaller P.J. Washington and dominate the glass. Instead, he shot 33-of-87, and the Timberwolves lost his minutes by 16 points, with Naz Reid closing Game 2 in his place. His defensive impact was minimal.

This inconsistency has characterized Towns' career. In the 2022 and 2023 playoffs, he scored 15 or fewer points in four of his 11 games but 25 or more in five of the remaining seven. He has more playoff games with four or more fouls (18) than three or fewer (14). Minnesota has lost his minutes in 20 of his 32 playoff games. Historically, teams tolerated such inconsistencies in max-level talents due to their rare and valuable peak performances.

But the NBA landscape has changed. The 2023 CBA was designed to dismantle teams like the Timberwolves. Minnesota has about $193 million committed in salary for next season, including a $7 million increase due to Edwards earning All-NBA honors. With only 10 players under contract, even filling out the roster with minimum salaries would push their payroll to around $200 million, incurring a luxury tax payment of approximately $70 million. This would make the 2024-25 Timberwolves one of the most expensive rosters in NBA history.

This is a problematic time for such a costly roster. The second apron’s harshest restrictions activate in July for teams above the projected $189 million line, eliminating access to the taxpayer mid-level exception, restricting trades, and freezing draft picks at the end of the first round. Starting in 2025-26, tax bills become even steeper.

It’s uncertain if Minnesota’s ownership is prepared to navigate this reality. Current owner Glen Taylor has been frugal with luxury tax payments, and potential new owners Alex Rodriguez and Marc Lore reportedly budgeted for a payroll under the expected luxury tax line. This implies a need to cut around $30 million.

Finding $30 million in dispensable salary is challenging since most of the roster is underpaid. Players like Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, and Mike Conley, who are essential and affordable, would attract numerous suitors. Gobert, a defensive stalwart, and Edwards, the franchise face, are not going anywhere. That leaves Towns as the only viable path to savings and meaningful change.

Deciding whether such change is necessary is debatable. The Timberwolves defeated the Nuggets, suggesting they have a championship-caliber roster. However, multiple championship-caliber teams can coexist, and Towns' struggles against the Mavericks might have cost Minnesota their best chance at winning the title.

Trading Towns could reconfigure matchups favorably against teams like Dallas but would sacrifice the size that helped beat Denver. Swapping him for a younger, score-first point guard could address offensive deficiencies, as Reid offers similar contributions at a lower cost.

Yet, Towns’ hefty contract makes him less attractive in the current market. Players like Trae Young, Brandon Ingram, and Zach LaVine struggle to generate interest due to their contracts. If Towns isn’t performing at a max level, few teams will want to pay him max money.

Initially, the Gobert trade was justified with the belief that Towns could be traded for a similar asset package if needed. Now, it’s unclear if any team would meet the criteria of paying Towns’ supermax contract, sending back win-now players, and saving the Timberwolves money.

Potential trade partners like the Knicks, Thunder, Heat, and Pelicans have various reasons to hesitate, whether due to fit, financial constraints, or previous failed partnerships. Lower-tier teams might take a risk, but there’s no perfect fit.

Minnesota’s dilemma is not unique; many teams are grappling with contracts made toxic by the new CBA. Winning a championship with a max player performing like Towns did against Dallas is nearly impossible. The prohibitive costs of retaining such players mean max contracts must yield max production. Towns' performance didn't meet that standard, which is why the Timberwolves aren't preparing for the Finals. If they can't maximize Towns on the court or through a trade, they might never get another chance like the one they just squandered.